Real Estate Stocks

As suggested back in July, Real Estate stocks have taken a pummeling.

The Homebuilders have fallen over 27% since mid July.  The head & shoulders pattern exceeded it's target, showing just how weak the builders have been.  Currently, the builders are oversold and showing some positive divergences.  They are due for some sort of bounce.  If they can clear the 20 day ema, 16 would be the next target of interest.  Anything below 13 would trigger a stop.

Likewise, Lowes exceeded its target to the downside, breaking below 21.5.  It now faces stiff resistance at 20.75.  That would be a good spot for a short position if the indicators unwind a bit more.  Should the 50 day ema come down closer to the bottom of the base (in green), that is where the stop would go.  The short would first target, then 15.

Lumber faded after its short lived breakout and fell out of the base.  It's currently sitting on support at the 200 week ema, but faces stiff resistance at 240.  The indicators are getting oversold, but will have to jump back into the base to have any significant upside potential.

The REITs got punished after falling out of the wedge way exceeding the target of 56.5, trading down to 49.  Its had a nice bounce, but some serious technical damage has been done.

Weyerhaeuser failed to hold the trendline and hit the stop.  If it can jump the 20 day ema it should near 19.5.  The indicators are coming up from being way oversold with some positive divergences in place.  This looks like a good long with a stop at 15.3.  Also, the current dividend yield is 3.6%.

The rate on the 5 yr note continues to plummet.  It has exceeded the target of 1%, hitting .9%.  Resistance is now at 1%.  The rate is going to have to jump back into the base quickly if rates are going to rise significantly.  The indicators are getting oversold, but the safe haven bid remains.  I guess the lowest they can go is 0%.