Pacific NW Stocks - Update

Hopefully, Pacific NW stocks continue to point towards a economic recovery in the Puget Sound Area.  Most stock have done quite well since my post in October. 

 Amazon powered ahead for another 12% run.  They are apparently winning their war on retailers.  Side beneficiaries of their victory have been the package delivers, Federal Express and UPS.  Looks overbought and in need of a price correction.

 Costco hit its target of 70 (for a 10% run), and then a funny thing happened this week.. they announced better than anticipated earnings pushing the stock higher.  Costco is also overbought, taking profits is in order.

 Starbucks exceeded its target of 32 (for a 14% run) by hitting 33 this week. 

 Nordstroms hit its target of 42 (16% increase) and decided to move a little higher.  It's currently consolidating within its base.  It looks like a better option to see where it settles out rather than buying now.

 Boeing can't seem to get out of its own way.  Delay after delay on the Dreamliner is trying investors patience.  The stock got hit with multiple downgrades after the latest announcement.  The stock has moved to the bottom of its base.  New purchases should have a stop at $63 with a new target of $70.

Weyerhaeuser almost made it to its target of $19 before getting downgraded this week.  It did make it to $18, for a 16% move.

Interest Rates

Interest rates appear to finally be making the move higher, in a big way.  In defiance of the Federal Reserve, it appears the bond vigilantes are making a stand.

 The 5 year note based out at 1.0% (1% interest to lock your money up for 5 years, that had to be some sort of joke).  5 year rates look headed to 2.3%.

The 10 year rate also bottomed in October.  Next stop is 3.8%.

Major Averages

It's been a great run for the major averages as they zero in on their targets.

The Nasdaq Composite has been the strongest, but is nearing overbought.

 2700 is the 1st target.  The indicators are nearing overbought so a correction should be expected.

 The Dow Industrial has been the weakest but still has a shot at its target of 12,000.

The S&P 500 broke to a new 2 yr high this week as it zeros in on its target of 1288.

The overbought nature of the averages suggest caution in the weeks ahead.

New Apartments

Both Harbor Properties and Su Development have announced plans to build new apartments.  It's good to see Developers start to make bold moves.  According to REIS, nationwide vacancy rates are still at record highs.

In the meantime, CB Richard Ellis has seen fit to call this the top in vacancy rates.  If the top is in, then Apartment sale prices ought to be rising, which is exactly what Moody's is seeing:
"Apartment buildings have led prices higher, rising almost 16 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, Moody’s reported. An index of retail properties fell about 12 percent in that time, while industrial buildings dropped 1.2 percent. Office property values increased 4.4 percent."
Seattle's Apartment market is doing substantially better than nationwide.  Dupre + Scott have come up with a 5.7% vacancy rate in the Seattle Market.

The amount of rent incentives appears to have peaked, and, rent decreases seem to be over.  With all this good news for the Seattle Apartment market, both Harbor and Su ought to benefit by being the first out of the ground.