Rates are on the Move

Significant week for 10Yr US Treasury Notes.

 

10 yr rates jumped over 3% on Friday ending the week at 2.6%.  That puts September's increase up to over 12%.  The gap up out of 2014's wedge points towards significant momentum behind this move.

 

The weekly chart adds a little perspective.  Last week had a solid candle with the Indy's curling up from oversold conditions.  The next significant source of resistance is at 27.  A break of that would challenge the 20 history of lower and lower rates, as seen on the next chart.

Should rates break 27 the next target would be 33.  The monthly indicators have a lot of work to do before they would be supportive of such a move.  The RSI has some support at 50, but the other indys are still pointing south.

King Dollar

The US Dollar continues on the tear that began in July.

 

The Dollar broke out of its long term base and is nearing 2013's highpoint.  A break above 85 would suggest that the next resistance level is 88.  The indys are getting pretty overbought.  A backtest of the breakout area of 84 will be in order before challenging the 2010 high.

A strong Dollar has wreaked havoc on Commodities.

 This daily chart shows the spike in the Dollar.  Commodities of all stripes are getting pummeled.  The Agricultural index, DBA, has been in a downtrend since the first bottom in the Dollar.  Oil, Gold & Copper had held up well until the July bottom.  Curiously, 10yr Treasury Notes had been a beneficiary of a stronger Dollar, until this week.