Home Prices

It appears the Winter blues are setting in on home prices.

 Case Shiller and Corelogic indices track fairly close together with both attempting to measure repeat sales.  Both report a 3 month moving average.  The above prices are for the 3 month period ending in August.  The tepid nature of the home price recovery is pretty evident.  With the expiration of the Gov't price support stimulus, prices look heavy heading into Winter.

 The Rate of Change is dropping.  I imagine the ROC is being supported by strong pricing in June, which will drop off the average next month.  As the slower Winter months work their way into the averages in the months ahead, the ROC will be negative.

 Taking a closer look at Seattle's Case Schiller index shows 2010's pricing top in May, as the stimulus was leaking out of prices.  Low Tier homes are dropping the fastest.

More recently, Zillow released their September report.  It claims Seattle home prices dropped another 1.5% during September.  In addition, upstart Clear Capital, which claims to have the most timely price information, reports that Seattle prices have breached new lows in October.  Anecdotal information supports the idea that Sales have dried up, leaving prices no where to go but down.  Prices should bottom in Feb and March of next year, just like they did last year.  Inventory levels and foreclosure activity ought to be the main determinants on where prices settle.

Real Estate Stocks

The Homebuilders sprang to life last week after wallowing most of the Summer.  Perhaps the market is anticipating a somewhat stronger Spring season than previously thought.

 The Homebulder ETF had a nice 10% run last week.  $16 is now strong support.  $18 is a good target.

The REITs continue their torrid year, breaking out to new 52 week highs.  Having direct access to the capital markets have positioned the REITs to take advantage of bargain basement prices.

 VNQ has no overhead resistance so the low $60s should be achievable.  Strong support is at $53.5.

Home Improvement stocks look poised for a breakout.  The giant, Home Depot, has enjoyed an 18% run since Sept. 

 Should HD break its downtrend line it should challenge its April high of $36.

Ten Year treasury rates have plummeted 37% since May.  I suppose the only certainty is that they can't go below 0%.

 It's hard to imagine a similar plunge going forward, but the Fed seems hellbent on trying. 

Local surviving Banks are starting to mend.  Banner Bank hit rock bottom last week after the "lock up" period expired, subsequent to their massive secondary offering in June.

There is still a ton of supply at $2 which will impede upside progress, but the bottom is in.

There is plenty of work still to be done in the Real Estate arena, but the signs of improvement abound.