Saturday, September 5, 2009

Dow Short Term

It would be nice to see a retrace towards 9400 allowing stops at 9375. Not clear whether that opportunity presents itself. Target is at 9535. If the target is hit, the possibility of new highs increases.

Lumber Update

After the breakdown, looks like a bascktest of 178 is order. Stops at 180.25. 160 should be the bottom for lumber.

China

DCon't count China out quite yet. Shanghai is testing important levels with a confluence of support at the moving averages, downtrend backtest and a short term trendline. A conservative buy level is at 2700. The stop would be 2600. A test of the recent highs would be a minimum target.

5 Year Treasuries

It's make or break time for the 5 Year Note. It traded below its 20ma and 50ma this week. It's going to need to get above 2.4% in a hurry to keep wave 4 favorable. A further backtest to the breakout will unfavorably weaken wave 5's target.

Gold - Long Term

Gold is making the move. The Indicators are showing more room for this move. We should see new highs in the coming weeks. After the breakout, stops should be moved to just below the breakout.

NAZ Long Term

Backtesting the breakout. Indicators are getting overbought. A sustained breakout might be more sustainable if the backtest takes it down to 1900. Unfortunately that's quite a ways from today's close.