Wednesday, August 3, 2011

Market Update

It sure didn't take long to get some feedback on which way the new trend may be going.
 The Dow cracked its long term trendline.  There might be a little support at the moving average, but the indicators are looking very bearish.
Zooming in a little bit the trendline break can be seen a little easier.  The daily indicators are getting very oversold.  I would have to suspect there is going to be a little rally soon which could be used to lighten any equities positions people might be holding.
 Similar situation on the S&P 500, although the trendline break looks a little more convincing. 
Taking a closer look, there looks like a head & shoulder pattern in play.  Typically, a break of the neckline (shown in green) needs to occur before the pattern can be validated.  Volume has been heavy on the recent down move adding credence to the H&S pattern.  If the pattern works, there should be a backtest of the neckline followed by a bigger downside move.  If you are long, that is where positions should be dumped and shorts put on.  Watching closely for further developments.

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