Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Case Shiller 4/10

The Case Shiller Indices crept up for the 3rd month in a row in April with a .4% gain over March.  You would have hoped that the market stimulus would have provided a little more price impetus than it appears.  The price rebound looks shaky at best.  I continue to expect lower prices by years end with low tier, mid tier and high tier prices dropping 5%, 7% and 10%, respectively.
 

Year over year, the 20 city index has gained 3.8%.  I'm sure that anything above 0% is music to the ears of Lenders.  Fllat pricing allows them to curtail loan loss provisions, thereby, stemming the financial bleeding.  This would provide an opportunity to shift their loss provisions to commercial properties which appear to be woefully under reserved.  Of course, following FAS 157, and not writing off anything is giving them a chance to shore up their capital base (which many Washignton Banks have been ordered to do) in hopes of living to fight another day.

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