Commodities

Wow!  Tough week for commodities.  The failure of the ECB to raise rates made for the start of a bad week for the Euro, which wasn't helped by rumors of Greece fleeing the Union.

 After breaking out last month, the Euro broke its trendline dropping over 3% for the week.  The first line of support is at $142 with stops at $141.  The indicators look to be rolling over, so $142 is questionable.  A MACD crossover would probably push the Euro lower.

The USD was a primary beneficiary of the weak Euro.  The USD looks poised to test $77 on this bounce.

While the currencies provide stimulus, the real action was in the commodities.

 After a parabolic run over the last 9 months, Silver finally got its wings clipped.  After touching $49.75 last week, Silver dropped 33% before finding some buyers at the trendline on Friday finishing the week off 25%.
Volume exploded.  Silver might be damaged goods for a while, after its tremendous run.  Another test of the trendline might provide an interesting opportunity, but I'd rather see how this settles out before jumping in.
 

 Oil got drubbed for over 16%.  $100/barrel looks like an important pivot price.  That's close to vertical support, a prior breakout and moving average support.  $90/barrel would be the next line of support (10% lower).  The indicators look suspect.  Regardless, hopefully consumers will see some relief at the gas pump soon.

 Dr. Copper started faltering in February.  It's off 10% since April.  A drop to $375 would set it up at its trendline while allowing the indicators to reset.  Not a bad looking chart compared to the others above.

Of note, Gold performed pretty well considering the carnage seen elsewhere.  Gold dipped less than 5%, backtesting a prior breakout level.  $1400 looks like good support.  I suspect Gold will meander for a while allowing the indicators to come in a bit.  It seems to me the markets are finally waking up to Gold as an alternative to all paper currencies (not just the USD).  Gold will always be subject to the vagaries of the commodities market, but its relative strength this week was interesting.